As soon as Millie Bright won the toss and decided to shoot first in the penalty shootout of England’s last 16 against Nigeria, it became an advantage for the Lionesses. Even after Georgia Stanway missed the opening kick, England still had very good passing chances and it is likely that the players were aware of this.
“Before the penalty shootout starts, it’s not a 50-50 advantage, but a 60-40 advantage over the team that comes first,” says Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, a professor at the London School of Economics, who has been studying the science of penalty shootout for a long time. “The main advantage is to go first, which is what drives this probability of winning.”
The emphasis on this advantage was reflected by Fifa 20 years ago, when they changed the rule that the one who won the draw now had the choice of getting first or second instead of having to step first. The chance to go first has always been preferred and it is now even more evident that the captains can make this decision on their own.
With close quarter–final matches at the World Cup – only two teams from the last eight are outside the top 10 nations in the world-the teams will be looking for an advantage when it comes to penalties. England, for example, tried to gain a psychological advantage by being on the side closest to the bench before the penalty shootout and ready to be the first in the middle round. Goalkeepers have notes about where opposing delinquent defenders hit the ball, analysts look at the patterns of the goalkeepers, and the players plan every moment of their stopped kick (or just run at full speed and hit it, as is the hallmark of Englishwoman Chloe Kelly).
Anyway, the numbers speak for the first place; at the last two World Championships and European Championships of women and men (including this one), seven (63.6%) of the 11 teams that received the first penalty won. It confirms the study of Palacios-Huerta that the team that scores first wins 60.5% of the time, derived from several major competitions, including the World Cup, the European Championship and the English national cups between 1970 and 2008.
Recent studies suggest that the division is shrinking and Palacios-Huerta says: “It seems that the difference between the first or second in the penalty shootout is decreasing, as it should be. It has become narrower and more even than before, so this advantage still exists, but it is smaller than before. The gap may be getting smaller, but it’s still important.”